Economic feasibility study of solar PV and wind turbines in Morocco applying Monte Carlo simulation

In this work, an economic feasibility study has been conducted on solar PV and wind turbine in Morocco using Monte Carlo simulation. By using historical measured data of solar irradiance and wind speed on different cities across Morocco and taking into account other factors that may affect the results on the economic profitability of the previously mentioned renewable plants, many different outcomes were computed to help interested parties take decisions on this type of activity. First, a review on the regulatory framework of the country has been done. Later, using solar irradiance and wind speed data of each city, probability distribution functions were assigned on each city, which allowed to consider the meteorological uncertainties in the calculations. The tools used to discuss the results are the net present value (NPV) and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). A comparison has been done between the solar PV with different tracking configurations and the onshore wind turbine at different levels of power capacity. The results reveal that regions close to the desert are more suitable to implement solar PV related projects, and the southern coastal regions are better befitting for wind turbines. This work is an academic research and results are computed using theoretical methods

A comprehensive methodology for the statistical characterization of solar irradiation: application to the case of Morocco

The prediction and characterization of solar irradiation relies mostly on either the use of complex models or on complicated mathematical techniques, such as artificial neural network (ANN)-based algorithms. This mathematical complexity might hamper their use by businesses and project developers when assessing the solar resource. In this study, a simple but comprehensive methodology for characterizing the solar resource for a project is presented. It is based on the determination of the best probability distribution function (PDF) of the solar irradiation for a specific location, assuming that the knowledge of statistical techniques may be more widely extended than other more complex mathematical methods. The presented methodology was tested on 23 cities across Morocco, given the high interest in solar investments in the country. As a result, a new database for solar irradiation values depending on historical data is provided for Morocco. The results show the great existing variety of PDFs for the solar irradiation data at the different months and cities, which demonstrates the need for undertaking a proper characterization of the irradiation when the assessment of solar energy projects is involved. When it is simply needed to embed the radiation uncertainty in the analysis, as is the case of the techno-economic valuation of solar energy assets, the presented methodology can reach this objective with much less complexity and less demanding input data. Moreover, its application is not limited to solar resource assessment, but can also be easily used in other fields, such as meteorology and climate change studies.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Economic feasibility study of solar PV and wind turbines in Morocco applying Monte Carlo simulation

In this work, an economic feasibility study has been conducted on solar PV and wind turbine in Morocco using Monte Carlo simulation. By using historical measured data of solar irradiance and wind speed on different cities across Morocco and taking into account other factors that may affect the results on the economic profitability of the previously mentioned renewable plants, many different outcomes were computed to help interested parties take decisions on this type of activity. First, a review on the regulatory framework of the country has been done. Later, using solar irradiance and wind speed data of each city, probability distribution functions were assigned on each city, which allowed to consider the meteorological uncertainties in the calculations. The tools used to discuss the results are the net present value (NPV) and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). A comparison has been done between the solar PV with different tracking configurations and the onshore wind turbine at different levels of power capacity. The results reveal that regions close to the desert are more suitable to implement solar PV related projects, and the southern coastal regions are better befitting for wind turbines. This work is an academic research and results are computed using theoretical methods

Economic feasibility study of solar PV and wind turbines in Morocco applying Monte Carlo simulation

In this work, an economic feasibility study has been conducted on solar PV and wind turbine in Morocco using Monte Carlo simulation. By using historical measured data of solar irradiance and wind speed on different cities across Morocco and taking into account other factors that may affect the results on the economic profitability of the previously mentioned renewable plants, many different outcomes were computed to help interested parties take decisions on this type of activity. First, a review on the regulatory framework of the country has been done. Later, using solar irradiance and wind speed data of each city, probability distribution functions were assigned on each city, which allowed to consider the meteorological uncertainties in the calculations. The tools used to discuss the results are the net present value (NPV) and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). A comparison has been done between the solar PV with different tracking configurations and the onshore wind turbine at different levels of power capacity. The results reveal that regions close to the desert are more suitable to implement solar PV related projects, and the southern coastal regions are better befitting for wind turbines. This work is an academic research and results are computed using theoretical methods